Amon-Ra St. BrownorDavante Adams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Davante Adams in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Davante Adams comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the Carolina Panthers (19% fewer than average to WRs), Davante Adams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (14% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 28.6
- Big game (20+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 13.8
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Davante AdamsWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.9 | 15.1 |
| PPR projection | 19.0 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | WR3 | WR6 |
| Matchup | at CAR | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.4 | 18.9 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 83% |
| Trade value | 61 | 52 |