Amon-Ra St. BrownorJa'Marr Chase?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase outscores Amon-Ra St. Brown in 57% of simulations.
Amon-Ra St. Brown still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Ja'Marr Chase is the better bet, not a sure thing. Ja'Marr Chase projects 2.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the better matchup against the New England Patriots (10% more than average to WRs); Ja'Marr Chase faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (2% more than average to WRs). Ja'Marr Chase still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 32.3
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.8 | 18.5 |
| PPR projection | 19.7 | 22.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.9 | 14.6 |
| Rank this week | WR6 | WR3 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.9 | 16.6 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 15.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 84% |
| Trade value | 50 | 79 |