Amon-Ra St. BrownorJa'Marr Chase?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ja'Marr Chase comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Ja'Marr Chase has the better matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs); Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the Carolina Panthers (19% fewer than average to WRs). Amon-Ra St. Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 28.6
- Big game (20+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 28.0
- Big game (20+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.9 | 15.7 |
| PPR projection | 19.0 | 19.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| Rank this week | WR3 | WR5 |
| Matchup | at CAR | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.4 | 15.2 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 15.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 100% |
| Trade value | 61 | 48 |