Ja'Marr ChaseorPuka Nacua?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 55% of simulations.
Ja'Marr Chase still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Puka Nacua is the better bet, not a sure thing. Puka Nacua projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Puka Nacua faces the Arizona Cardinals (1% more than average to WRs), Ja'Marr Chase faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (1% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 32.3
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 18.3
- Ceiling
- 33.1
- Big game (20+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 6):
- 3%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.5 | 20.3 |
| PPR projection | 22.4 | 25.1 |
| Standard projection | 14.5 | 15.5 |
| Rank this week | WR3 | WR1 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.6 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 93% |
| Trade value | 81 | 85 |