Amon-Ra St. BrownorChristian Watson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Christian Watson in 60% of simulations.
Christian Watson still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Amon-Ra St. Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 2.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the better matchup against the New England Patriots (10% more than average to WRs); Christian Watson faces the Minnesota Vikings (22% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Amon-Ra St. Brown wins 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.3
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.8 | 12.9 |
| PPR projection | 19.7 | 15.0 |
| Standard projection | 11.9 | 10.7 |
| Rank this week | WR7 | WR10 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.9 | 16.9 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 11.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 77% |
| Trade value | 52 | 45 |