Christian WatsonorRashee Rice?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Christian Watson
Christian Watson outscores Rashee Rice in 56% of simulations.
Rashee Rice still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Christian Watson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian Watson projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Christian Watson faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs), Rashee Rice faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian Watson wins 61%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 26.3
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
- Floor
- 5.5
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rashee RiceWR, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.1 | 13.1 |
| PPR projection | 17.3 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | WR7 | WR10 |
| Matchup | at TB | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.3 | 10.5 |
| Last season per game | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 77% |
| Trade value | 44 | 30 |