Christian WatsonorRashee Rice?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Start Christian Watson

Christian Watson outscores Rashee Rice in 56% of simulations.

Rashee Rice still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Christian Watson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian Watson projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Christian Watson faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs), Rashee Rice faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian Watson wins 61%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Christian Watson
Floor
5.6
Median
13.4
Ceiling
26.3
Big game (20+):
23%
Dud (under 6):
12%
Rashee Rice
Floor
5.5
Median
12.0
Ceiling
22.1
Big game (20+):
15%
Dud (under 6):
13%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatChristian WatsonWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETRashee RiceWR, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.113.1
PPR projection17.315.9
Standard projection12.810.3
Rank this weekWR7WR10
Matchupat TBat LV
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game20.310.5
Last season per game11.515.5
Snap share, last game80%77%
Trade value4430