Ja'Marr ChaseorNico Collins?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase outscores Nico Collins in 69% of simulations.
Nico Collins still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Ja'Marr Chase is the better bet, not a sure thing. These are their next games: Ja'Marr Chase in Week 10, Nico Collins in Week 9. Ja'Marr Chase projects 6.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Ja'Marr Chase has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (2% more than average to WRs); Nico Collins faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 8%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.4 | 11.4 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.6 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | Not ranked | WR11 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 96% | 67% |
| Trade value | 59 | 24 |