Christian WatsonorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Christian Watson
Christian Watson outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tetairoa McMillan comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Christian Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tetairoa McMillan projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tetairoa McMillan has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (6% more than average to WRs); Christian Watson faces the Carolina Panthers (15% fewer than average to WRs). Christian Watson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 22.4
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 24.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.2 | 12.5 |
| PPR projection | 14.2 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| Rank this week | WR11 | WR9 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.1 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 68% |
| Trade value | 33 | 27 |