Justin JeffersonorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Tetairoa McMillan
Tetairoa McMillan outscores Justin Jefferson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Tetairoa McMillan, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tetairoa McMillan projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tetairoa McMillan has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 8.0 |
| Rank this week | WR22 | WR21 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 12% | 95% |
| Trade value | 11 | 3 |