Nico CollinsorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 57% of simulations.
Tetairoa McMillan still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Nico Collins is the better bet, not a sure thing. Nico Collins projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Nico Collins faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% more than average to WRs), Tetairoa McMillan faces the Philadelphia Eagles (1% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 13.3 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 16.0 |
| Standard projection | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | WR8 |
| Matchup | at JAX | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.7 | 15.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 71% | 89% |
| Trade value | 39 | 36 |