Jaxon Smith-NjigbaorNico Collins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Nico Collins in 62% of simulations.
Nico Collins still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 3.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Nico Collins has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 32.1
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
- Floor
- 7.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 27.6
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 16.6 |
| PPR projection | 23.8 | 19.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.6 | 13.8 |
| Rank this week | WR1 | WR5 |
| Matchup | vs SF | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 25.2 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 17.7 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 69% |
| Trade value | 94 | 55 |