George PickensorNico Collins?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores George Pickens in 56% of simulations.
George Pickens still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Nico Collins is the better bet, not a sure thing. Nico Collins projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Nico Collins faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% more than average to WRs), George Pickens faces the Green Bay Packers (2% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 23.9
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George PickensWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.2 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 15.9 | 17.4 |
| Standard projection | 10.4 | 12.0 |
| Rank this week | WR9 | WR5 |
| Matchup | at GB | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.0 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 14.4 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 71% |
| Trade value | 34 | 39 |