Justin JeffersonorZay Flowers?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores Justin Jefferson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Zay Flowers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (8% more than average to WRs); Zay Flowers faces the Cincinnati Bengals (14% fewer than average to WRs). Zay Flowers still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 21.5
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| PPR projection | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| Rank this week | WR17 | WR18 |
| Matchup | vs IND | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.6 | 15.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 88% |
| Trade value | 18 | 25 |