A.J. BrownorZay Flowers?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores A.J. Brown in 58% of simulations.
A.J. Brown still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Zay Flowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Zay Flowers projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (14% more than average to WRs); Zay Flowers faces the Cincinnati Bengals (14% fewer than average to WRs). Zay Flowers still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 21.3
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.3 | 14.9 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| Rank this week | WR22 | WR18 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.2 | 15.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 88% |
| Trade value | 5 | 25 |