A.J. BrownorCaleb Douglas?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Caleb Douglas
Caleb Douglas outscores A.J. Brown in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: A.J. Brown comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Caleb Douglas, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Douglas projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (14% more than average to WRs); Caleb Douglas faces the Indianapolis Colts (5% more than average to WRs). Caleb Douglas still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 12.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR23 |
| Matchup | at DET | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 74% |
| Trade value | 3 | 9 |