A.J. BrownorStefon Diggs?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs outscores A.J. Brown in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: A.J. Brown comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Stefon Diggs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. A.J. Brown projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (14% more than average to WRs); Stefon Diggs faces the New York Giants (3% more than average to WRs). Stefon Diggs still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Stefon DiggsWR, WAS, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 12.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR27 |
| Matchup | at DET | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 10.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 9.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 61% |
| Trade value | 3 | 8 |