Caleb DouglasorJustin Jefferson?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Caleb Douglas in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Douglas comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Justin Jefferson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); Caleb Douglas faces the New England Patriots (1% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Justin Jefferson wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Caleb Douglas is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 10.9
- Ceiling
- 21.8
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.1 |
| Standard projection | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| Rank this week | WR13 | WR10 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.6 | 12.1 |
| Last season per game | — | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 93% |
| Trade value | 27 | 19 |