A.J. BrownorCarnell Tate?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Carnell Tate
Carnell Tate outscores A.J. Brown in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: A.J. Brown comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. A.J. Brown projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (14% more than average to WRs); Carnell Tate faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% more than average to WRs). Carnell Tate still wins more often despite that. A.J. Brown is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 19.1
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 37%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| PPR projection | 11.4 | 11.6 |
| Standard projection | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR29 |
| Matchup | at DET | vs JAX |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 8.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 89% |
| Trade value | 3 | — |