DK MetcalforJustin Jefferson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Justin Jefferson in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DK Metcalf projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.6 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR18 | WR19 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 12% |
| Trade value | 11 | 21 |