DK MetcalforLuther Burden III?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Luther Burden III in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DK Metcalf projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Luther Burden III has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (12% more than average to WRs); DK Metcalf faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1% fewer than average to WRs). DK Metcalf still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR22 | WR25 |
| Matchup | at TB | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.8 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 92% | 77% |
| Trade value | 6 | — |