Carnell TateorJustin Jefferson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Carnell Tate in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Carnell Tate comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Justin Jefferson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Houston Texans (2% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to WRs). Justin Jefferson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Justin Jefferson wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.9 | 10.6 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR22 | WR18 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.9 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | — | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 12% |
| Trade value | 6 | 18 |