A.J. BrownorDeVonta Smith?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores A.J. Brown in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: A.J. Brown comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the New York Jets (5% fewer than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Carolina Panthers (15% fewer than average to WRs). DeVonta Smith still wins more often despite that. A.J. Brown is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.6 | 12.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | WR18 | WR17 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | vs CAR |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.1 | 13.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 9.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 44% | 100% |
| Trade value | 16 | 16 |