DeVonta SmithorMichael Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores Michael Wilson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Los Angeles Rams (2% more than average to WRs). DeVonta Smith still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.3 | 11.6 |
| PPR projection | 14.1 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR15 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 93% |
| Trade value | 16 | 14 |