DeVonta SmithorStefon Diggs?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs outscores DeVonta Smith in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: DeVonta Smith comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Stefon Diggs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Stefon Diggs projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Stefon Diggs has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Los Angeles Rams (2% more than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DeVonta Smith
Floor
3.4
Median
9.8
Ceiling
22.1
Big game (20+):
14%
Dud (under 6):
27%
Stefon Diggs
Floor
4.3
Median
10.4
Ceiling
20.9
Big game (20+):
12%
Dud (under 6):
19%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETStefon DiggsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection11.311.9
PPR projection14.114.5
Standard projection8.69.4
Rank this weekWR16WR14
Matchupvs LARvs IND
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game13.012.7
Last season per game9.69.9
Snap share, last game100%59%
Trade value1614