DeVonta SmithorStefon Diggs?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs outscores DeVonta Smith in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: DeVonta Smith comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Stefon Diggs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Stefon Diggs projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Stefon Diggs has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Los Angeles Rams (2% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 20.9
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Stefon DiggsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| PPR projection | 14.1 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR14 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 59% |
| Trade value | 16 | 14 |