Jameson WilliamsorJustin Jefferson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Jameson Williams in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jameson Williams comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Justin Jefferson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jameson Williams has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (7% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to WRs). Justin Jefferson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jameson WilliamsWR, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| PPR projection | 12.2 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR19 |
| Matchup | at ARI | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.7 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 99% | 12% |
| Trade value | 10 | 21 |