Amon-Ra St. BrownorCaleb Douglas?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Caleb Douglas in 56% of simulations.
Caleb Douglas still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Amon-Ra St. Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Caleb Douglas has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (18% more than average to WRs); Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (10% fewer than average to WRs). Amon-Ra St. Brown still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Amon-Ra St. Brown wins 51%. Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 11.4 |
| PPR projection | 15.9 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR8 | WR12 |
| Matchup | at MIA | vs DET |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.4 | 10.3 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 72% | 86% |
| Trade value | 50 | 12 |