Caleb DouglasorNico Collins?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Caleb Douglas in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Douglas comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 11.4 half-PPR points in Week 9. Caleb Douglas has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (18% more than average to WRs); Nico Collins faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR15 |
| Matchup | vs DET | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.3 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | — | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 67% |
| Trade value | 14 | 26 |