George PickensorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start George Pickens
George Pickens outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 56% of simulations.
Tetairoa McMillan still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so George Pickens is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Pickens projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tetairoa McMillan has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); George Pickens faces the Houston Texans (4% fewer than average to WRs). George Pickens still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 21.3
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George PickensWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 14.5 | 12.8 |
| Standard projection | 9.1 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR15 | WR19 |
| Matchup | at HOU | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.4 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 95% |
| Trade value | 22 | 3 |