Christian WatsonorGarrett Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Christian Watson
Christian Watson outscores Garrett Wilson in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Garrett Wilson comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Christian Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Christian Watson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Garrett Wilson has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (15% more than average to WRs); Christian Watson faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Christian Watson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian Watson wins 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 26.3
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.1 | 15.0 |
| PPR projection | 17.3 | 18.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 11.6 |
| Rank this week | WR7 | WR9 |
| Matchup | at TB | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.3 | 15.6 |
| Last season per game | 11.5 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 94% |
| Trade value | 44 | 33 |