Amon-Ra St. BrownorGarrett Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Garrett Wilson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Garrett Wilson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Garrett Wilson has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (11% more than average to WRs); Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the Carolina Panthers (19% fewer than average to WRs). Amon-Ra St. Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.7
- Ceiling
- 27.9
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 12.7
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.5 | 14.2 |
| PPR projection | 18.6 | 17.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.3 | 11.0 |
| Rank this week | WR4 | WR8 |
| Matchup | at CAR | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.4 | 15.6 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 94% |
| Trade value | 61 | 31 |