Garrett WilsonorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson outscores Zay Flowers in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Garrett Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Garrett Wilson faces the Chicago Bears (15% more than average to WRs), Zay Flowers faces the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.6
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.0 | 15.1 |
| PPR projection | 18.3 | 17.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.6 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | WR9 | WR8 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.6 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 33% |
| Trade value | 33 | 36 |