Garrett WilsonorZay Flowers?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson outscores Zay Flowers in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Garrett Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Garrett Wilson faces the Chicago Bears (15% more than average to WRs), Zay Flowers faces the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Garrett Wilson
Floor
5.4
Median
13.4
Ceiling
26.9
Big game (20+):
24%
Dud (under 6):
13%
Zay Flowers
Floor
5.6
Median
13.6
Ceiling
26.9
Big game (20+):
25%
Dud (under 6):
12%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatGarrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETZay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.015.1
PPR projection18.317.8
Standard projection11.612.4
Rank this weekWR9WR8
Matchupat CHIvs TEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.618.2
Last season per game11.611.8
Snap share, last game94%33%
Trade value3336