Luther Burden IIIorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Luther Burden III
Luther Burden III outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tetairoa McMillan comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Luther Burden III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 10.5 half-PPR points in Week 9. Luther Burden III has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% fewer than average to WRs); Tetairoa McMillan faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 20.2
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 12.9 |
| Standard projection | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR20 |
| Matchup | vs TB | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.8 | 12.6 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 57% | 89% |
| Trade value | 16 | 24 |