Michael WilsonorTee Higgins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins outscores Michael Wilson in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Tee Higgins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tee Higgins projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs); Tee Higgins faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs). Tee Higgins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tee HigginsWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.5 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | WR15 | WR13 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 93% | 93% |
| Trade value | 15 | 26 |