DeVonta SmithorMike Evans?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores DeVonta Smith in 56% of simulations.
DeVonta Smith still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Mike Evans is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mike Evans projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Mike Evans has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Carolina Panthers (15% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| PPR projection | 12.3 | 13.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| Rank this week | WR17 | WR13 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | vs WAS |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 63% |
| Trade value | 16 | 19 |