Carnell TateorMike Evans?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Carnell Tate
Carnell Tate outscores Mike Evans in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mike Evans comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Carnell Tate projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Houston Texans (2% more than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Mike Evans is the pick at 53%. Carnell Tate is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 37%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 11.6 | 9.9 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR25 | WR29 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at SEA |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.9 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | — | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 59% |
| Trade value | 6 | 3 |