Luther Burden IIIorMike Evans?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores Luther Burden III in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mike Evans, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Luther Burden III projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Luther Burden III has the better matchup against the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Denver Broncos (16% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans still wins more often despite that. Mike Evans is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 14.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 6.1 |
| Rank this week | WR35 | WR37 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 9.3 | 10.6 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 61% | 33% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |