Luther Burden IIIorMatthew Golden?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden outscores Luther Burden III in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 8.1 half-PPR points in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Matthew Golden faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs), Luther Burden III faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 16.8
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 15.5
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Matthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| PPR projection | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR38 | WR37 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.3 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 61% | 82% |
| Trade value | — | — |