Luther Burden IIIorMatthew Golden?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Matthew Golden

Matthew Golden outscores Luther Burden III in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 8.1 half-PPR points in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Matthew Golden faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs), Luther Burden III faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Luther Burden III
Floor
1.7
Median
6.6
Ceiling
16.8
Big game (20+):
5%
Dud (under 6):
46%
Matthew Golden
Floor
2.4
Median
7.1
Ceiling
15.5
Big game (20+):
4%
Dud (under 6):
41%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatLuther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETMatthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.18.1
PPR projection10.19.8
Standard projection6.16.5
Rank this weekWR38WR37
Matchupvs NYJat TB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game9.312.9
Last season per game7.04.0
Snap share, last game61%82%
Trade value——