Courtland SuttonorLuther Burden III?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton outscores Luther Burden III in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Courtland Sutton, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Luther Burden III projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Courtland Sutton faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs), Luther Burden III faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Courtland Sutton
Floor
2.6
Median
6.9
Ceiling
14.0
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
42%
Luther Burden III
Floor
1.7
Median
6.6
Ceiling
16.8
Big game (20+):
5%
Dud (under 6):
46%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCourtland SuttonWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETLuther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.78.1
PPR projection9.510.1
Standard projection5.96.1
Rank this weekWR40WR38
Matchupat SFvs NYJ
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game4.19.3
Last season per game10.77.0
Snap share, last game87%61%
Trade value——