Caleb DouglasorMatthew Golden?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden outscores Caleb Douglas in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Douglas comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Douglas projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Caleb Douglas has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (5% more than average to WRs); Matthew Golden faces the Minnesota Vikings (22% fewer than average to WRs). Matthew Golden still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Matthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.5 | 10.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR19 | WR21 |
| Matchup | at IND | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 15.3 |
| Last season per game | — | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 74% |
| Trade value | 12 | 24 |