Matthew GoldenorMichael Wilson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden outscores Michael Wilson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (5% fewer than average to WRs); Matthew Golden faces the Minnesota Vikings (22% fewer than average to WRs). Matthew Golden still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Matthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.4 | 10.7 |
| PPR projection | 12.5 | 13.3 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR18 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 10.6 |
| Last season per game | 4.0 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 83% |
| Trade value | 24 | 17 |