Michael WilsonorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores Michael Wilson in 56% of simulations.
Michael Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Zay Flowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Zay Flowers projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Zay Flowers faces the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs), Michael Wilson faces the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs). Zay Flowers is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.3
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 15.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR12 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 93% | 33% |
| Trade value | 14 | 33 |