Rashee RiceorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores Rashee Rice in 55% of simulations.
Rashee Rice still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Zay Flowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Zay Flowers projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs); Rashee Rice faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.5
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.6
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Rashee RiceWR, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.1 | 15.1 |
| PPR projection | 15.9 | 17.8 |
| Standard projection | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | WR10 | WR8 |
| Matchup | at LV | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 15.5 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 33% |
| Trade value | 30 | 36 |