DeVonta SmithorDK Metcalf?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores DeVonta Smith in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: DeVonta Smith comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (3% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 8.4 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR17 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 8.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 97% |
| Trade value | 15 | 8 |