Christian WatsonorDeVonta Smith?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores Christian Watson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Christian Watson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. DeVonta Smith has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (13% more than average to WRs); Christian Watson faces the Carolina Panthers (15% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian Watson is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 22.4
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 p.m. ET | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.2 | 12.6 |
| PPR projection | 14.2 | 15.6 |
| Standard projection | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| Rank this week | WR15 | WR11 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.1 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 11.5 | 9.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 66% |
| Trade value | 32 | 20 |