DeVonta SmithorMalik Nabers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores Malik Nabers in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Nabers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Malik Nabers projects 1.0 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (3% more than average to WRs). DeVonta Smith still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.1 | 12.1 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR13 |
| Matchup | at JAX | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 76% |
| Trade value | 15 | 16 |