DeVonta SmithorJameson Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores Jameson Williams in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jameson Williams comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: DeVonta Smith faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (3% more than average to WRs), Jameson Williams faces the Arizona Cardinals (7% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Jameson WilliamsWR, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 12.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR20 |
| Matchup | at JAX | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 7.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 99% |
| Trade value | 15 | 6 |