DJ MooreorMike Evans?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores DJ Moore in 55% of simulations.
DJ Moore still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Mike Evans is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 8.6 half-PPR points in Week 4. DJ Moore has the better matchup against the New England Patriots (3% fewer than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DJ MooreWR, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | WR32 | WR31 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 64% | 33% |
| Trade value | 1 | 5 |