DJ MooreorKeenan Allen?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen outscores DJ Moore in 56% of simulations.
DJ Moore still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Keenan Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Keenan Allen projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); DJ Moore faces the New England Patriots (3% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Keenan Allen wins 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DJ MooreWR, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 6.8 |
| Rank this week | WR30 | WR26 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 64% | 73% |
| Trade value | — | — |