Antonio WilliamsorMatthew Golden?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden outscores Antonio Williams in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Antonio Williams comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Matthew Golden projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Antonio Williams has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Matthew Golden faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Matthew Golden still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 13.4
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 53%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Matthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 7.2 |
| PPR projection | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR43 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.9 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 41% | 82% |
| Trade value | — | — |