Antonio WilliamsorTed Hurst III?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Ted Hurst III

Ted Hurst III outscores Antonio Williams in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Antonio Williams comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Ted Hurst III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 6.9 half-PPR points in Week 4. Antonio Williams has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Ted Hurst III faces the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs). Ted Hurst III still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Antonio Williams is the pick at 52%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Floor
1.7
Median
5.7
Ceiling
13.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
53%
Ted Hurst III
Floor
2.5
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.5
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAntonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETTed Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.96.9
PPR projection8.57.9
Standard projection5.36.0
Rank this weekWR43WR44
Matchupvs INDvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.96.4
Last season per game——
Snap share, last game41%75%
Trade value——