Josh DownsorTory Horton?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Tory Horton in 56% of simulations.
Tory Horton still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Downs projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs); Tory Horton faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Josh Downs wins 62%; in Standard leagues, Tory Horton is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tory HortonWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 7.9 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Rank this week | WR41 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at PIT | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 6.7 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 17% |
| Trade value | — | — |